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This monthly newsletter facilitates monitoring and understanding of the international situation. It is published at the beginning of the month and organised in four parts: The first part classifies some of the most important news items in terms of armed conflicts and peace building in three sections (deterioration, alert and progress).
The second part summarises a subject for analysis based on three news items which may not have received enough coverage in the media. The third part presents some of the articles, reports and press releases produced by Programme on Conflict and Peacebuilding. Finally, the fourth part includes a short calendar with some of the events that will be taking place over the next month.
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Programme on Conflict and Peacebuilding
Monthly NEWSLETTER
Nº 26, April 2008
To read the full document click here.
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BURUNDI: Clashes take place between the FNL and the armed forces in Bujumbura and its outskirts, which could mean the definite breach of the ceasefire signed in 2006. |
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HAITI: The prime minister resigns after a majority in the Senate presented a vote of no confidence against him in relation to his management of the protests against the increase in prices of basic products, which left several people dead and others wounded. |
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PALESTINE: UN interrupts the humanitarian assistance to Gaza due to the Israeli blockade, which is taking place in parallel to the military offensive against Palestinian territory. |
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SOMALIA: Insurgent actions are extended beyond the capital, Mogadiscio, which adds to a new rise of clashes between Ethiopian troops and the insurgents in the capital, result in a dead toll of 100 and 200 people wounded, the majority of them being civilians. |
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SUDAN (DARFUR): The UN states that the number of deaths since the beginning of the conflict five years ago is 300.000, a statement severely criticised by the Sudanese representative to the UN. |
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UGANDA (NORTH): The signing of the final peace agreement between the government and the LRA is postponed indefinitely, although new contacts between the South Sudanese mediators and the armed groups are foreseen. |
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BOLIVIA: Several South American countries and organizations contribute to the facilitation of the dialogue between the government and the governors of the eastern departments, and warn over the possible outbreaks of violence if an agreement is not reached. |
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DR CONGO (EAST): The Mai Mai militia PARECO announces its withdrawal from the peace process two months after the signature of the agreement between the government and the majority of the armed groups from the East of the country. |
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GEORGIA – RUSSIA: Tension increases between both countries following the Russian decision to establish formal links with Abkhazia and South Ossetia, while both pro-independence regions reject the new Georgian peace proposal. |
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IRAQ: Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr threatens with an open war against Bagdad’s government if it does not end the actions against its supporters, following a military offensive which has resulted in hundreds of deaths. |
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PHILIPPINES (MINDANAO-MILF): The government and the MILF state that the possible withdrawal of the international team which monitors the ceasefire could hinder the peace negotiations and lead to a new outbreak of violence in Mindanao. |
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RWANDA: Two attacks take place during the week that commemorates the genocide of 1994, which points to the latent tensions of the country. |
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SERBIA – KOSOVO: The Serbian government announces that the parliamentarian elections will also take place in the Serbian-majority areas in Kosovo, while the Kosovan Parliament approves a constitution that proclaims its territory as an indivisible State. |
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SUDAN: The government of the south of Sudan postpones the elaboration of the census with the aim that the final document represents the real distribution of population between the north and the south, taking into account the displacement situation. |
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ZIMBABWE: A month after the holding of the presidential elections the results continue to be unknown, fact that increases the risk of an outbreak of violence in the country. |
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BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA: The Parliament passes the laws on the police reform after years of debate and deadlocks. |
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CÒTE D’IVOIRE: The electoral commission sets the 30th of November as the date for the presidential elections, fact that can contribute to the consolidation of the peace process. |
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GUATEMALA: The Parliament approves a law on femicide hardening the sentences against this crime that has caused the death of more than 2.700 women since 2003. |
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KENYA: The political opposition reaches an agreement for the sharing of power with the president with the aim of ending the tension of the last months that has caused more than 1.500 deaths and the displacement of 600.000 people. |
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MALI: The government and the Tuareg insurgency, led by Ag Bahanga, reach an agreement for the cessation of hostilities with the support of the Libyan mediation. |
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MOLDOVA (TRANSDNIESTER): The Moldovan president and the pro-independence leader meet for the first time in seven years and agree on promoting confidence building measures that could lead to the resumption of negotiations. |
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NEPAL: The elections for the Constituent Assembly take place peacefully in spite of the incidents of the electoral campaign in which 11 people died, being the Maoist party and former armed opposition group CPN(M) the most voted. |
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PAKISTAN: The Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud announces a truce after talks with the Pakistani government which is also negotiating with leaders from Baluchistan, in spite of the rejection to those talks by the BLA, the main armed organization in the region. |
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SYRIA – ISRAEL: A member of the Syrian government states that Israeli primer minister, Ehud Olmert, has announced being ready to give back the Golan Heights to Syria in exchange for peace. |
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Post-electoral crisis in Zimbabwe: the collapse of Mugabe’s regime. |
A month after the general elections in Zimbabwe, the electoral commission has not released the final results of the presidential vote yet. This strategy has been signalled by the opposition party MDC, which claimed the victory, like another stratagem by Robert Mugabe’s party, ZANU-PF, to retain the power and confirm the fraud initiated during the day of the elections. Despite all of the decisions and actions implemented to rig the results, as it has been reported by national and international human rights organizations as well as different governments of western countries, the results seem to have given the victory to the opposition.
After a partial recount of the votes in 23 constituencies, following a demand of the ZANU-PF, the victory of the opposition has been confirmed in the Parliament for the first time since the country obtained its independence in 1980. The MDC won 99 sits while Mugabe’s party achieved 97, although the strong presidential powers of the Zimbabwean system does not leave many options for the lower chamber to act as a counter-power. Furthermore, the number of opposition parliamentary sits is divided between its two factions, which were not able to reach an agreement to present a unique candidacy for the elections, which poses questions on their ability to reach consensus inside the legislative organ.
The government and several related media have already revealed that a second round will be required to appoint the new President. During the last weeks Mugabe’s oppressive apparatus has multiplied the harassment, the detention and the tortures against MDC party members and supporters. According to police sources, at least 215 people have been detained in the last days, most of them during a raid in the general headquarters of the opposition party in Harare, accused of anti-system violence. On the other hand, the Secretary General of the MDC, Tendai Biti, warned from South Africa about the acts of violence committed by pro-Mugabe |
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militias mainly on rural areas where close to 3.000 families had been forced to flee. In addition, at least 10 party members could have died during the last two weeks. Although these facts have not been confirmed by other local sources, the organization Human Rights Watch has reported the existence of illegal detention centres where people suspected of having voted for the MDC are being tortured. Furthermore, a Chinese flag cargo-ship tried to unload in South Africa a shipment of arms assigned to Zimbabwe’s government. A judge prevented the unloading in the country, while Chinese authorities alleged that there was no United Nations arms embargo against Zimbabwe and therefore, South Africa’s attitude was becoming an act of interference.
But, what is the international community doing in front of the possibility that this tense situation in Zimbabwe could derail into a new wave of violence? And above all, as former UN Secretary- General, Kofi Annan, pointed out: what are the neighbouring African states doing to prevent the situation from spilling out? The Southern African Development Community has led the unsuccessful mediation tasks between Mugabe and the MDC during the last years through its President Thabo Mbeki, who has been criticized on many occasions because of his alleged excessive proximity to Mugabe’s regime and his lack of firm hand in relation to the excesses of the President. It is difficult to understand what are the reasons behind the lack of South African determination, apart from the reverential respect shown to those who fought to free Zimbabwe from the apartheid regime, which hold Mugabe as its greatest exponent. Furthermore, taking into account the way in which the outbreak of a conflict in the country could affect the stability of the region, the lack of determination of the African leaders to offer strategies to put an end to the crisis is difficult to understand. Without drawing parallelisms with the latest events in Kenya, there is hope that it would not be necessary to wait for the bloodshed to happen so that all those involved use their resources to solve this serious crisis. |
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Parliamentary elections in Equatorial Guinea |
4th of May |
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Parliamentary elections in Serbia |
11th of May |
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Presidential elections in Dominican Republic |
16th of May |
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Parliamentary elections in Kuwait |
17th of May |
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Tel. (+34) 93 581 24 14 - Fax (+34) 93 581 32 94 - escolapau@pangea.org
ACTUALIZADA 28.04.08
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